Every year SABOR, (San Antonio Board of Real Estate) kicks off the year with a housing forecast, which reflects upon the successes, and trends of the year-as well as where we are headed in the New Year…
The last several years, the headliners have been Mark Dotzour, retired economics professor from Texas A&M, along with Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist from the National Association of Realtors, and Jenna Saucedo-Herrera, from the San Antonio Economic Development Foundation (SAEDF).
The following are some highlights noted from the economic side of the presentations. And provided, is also a link to the most recent market statistics for 2017, that may be of interest to those would like to look at the actual performance year over year.
- We are currently in one of the longest U.S. Economic Expansions, currently at 103 months as of January 2018. March 1991 to March 2001 ranks highest at 120 months.
- Texas ranks highest in employment growth, 2,742,414, with California in 2nd, 2,031,864, and Florida in 3rd at 1, 792, 590
- Texas ranks highest for Net Domestic Migration with Dallas -Fort Worth, Arlington leading at 622,550, Houston in 2nd at 523, 748, Austin-Round Rock at 416, 602, and San Antonio, 322, 063.
- Building permits are up in 2017 in San Antonio, from 2016, and 2015 where they were level, however, they have otherwise climbed year over year since 2011.
- Threats to economy are unrest in Saudi Arabia and Iran, huge U.S. budget defecit spending increase, short term interest rates increase too fast and too much, and long term interest rates increase because of higher inflation. Of which Fed has no control here.
- Conclusion overall is demand is strong, supply continues to be tight, appreciation will continue, and mortgage rates could increase. Economy is projected to continue to grow, home sales are constrained by lack of inventory.
- Check here for previous presentations, or for the link to potentially be added from SABOR.
- Tax reform discourages incentive for home-ownership because of the mortgage interest deduction slashed 50% from the 1st $1,000,000 to $500,00.00.
- Capital gains exemption now requires residency for 5 out of 8 years, instead of 2 out of 5.
- The current tax reform impacts the middle class the greatest because of the changes to standard deductions.
- If not for the hurricanes, housing market would have notched solid gain for the 3rd consecutive year.
- 94% of Texas homeowners pay less than $10K in property taxes. 97% of Texas homeowners have less than $750K in mortgage.
- We have had decade high home sales in 2017-but remain below bubble years of 2004-2006
- Existing home sales have increased 4% year to date, and the median price is up 9%.
- Mortgage rates have fluctuated predominantly between 3.5-4.5% since 2012.
- 48% of the people surveyed in 3rd quarter 2017 strongly indicated it was a good time to buy.
- Actual tenure of homes has elevated to 10 years, from a 5-7 year average.
- We have been trending about a 4-6 month supply of inventory nationally since November 2012.
- Single family housing starts well below 50 year average.
- Student loans have had the highest impact on home purchase, (70%).
- Wealth has increased to a 200K average for homeowners vs. 5k average for renters.
- Fewer borrows are defaulting in Texas.
- GDP predicted to grow half a point to 3.0% vs. 2.5% in 2017.
- 49% job growth in San Antonio market, vs. 11% nationally.
- Primary issues during Trump presidency are the questions regarding flood insurance availability, Dodd Frank, changes in CFPB, (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau), and the impacts on the housing market due to tax reform.
Overall, confidence remains strong, where the Texas brand continues to perform exceptionally well-where without any major disaster, such as warfare, or otherwise, our market is expected to have another great year of growth.
If I can assist you with a market analysis of your particular property, reach out here, and I will follow up ASAP.